Andy Burnham has stepped into the job of UK Labour leader on his way to the prime ministership, with his party having trailed Reform in the opinion polls for nearly 18 months.
The size of Reform’s lead has shrunk in recent weeks, with Nigel Farage’s party currently around five points ahead, down from 10 at the start of 2026.
Not since early 2025 has Labour consistently polled in front of all its rivals.
It is common for parties to suffer a slide in the polls after taking power – it has happened to almost every UK government in the past 40 years – but a drop of the size experienced by Labour is unusual, and reflects a sharp and sudden fragmentation of British politics.
Labour polled in the low 30s for several months after winning the general election in July 2024, then saw its numbers begin a slow but steady decline, dropping below 30 per cent by October and below 25 per cent by the following April.
Come July 2025, one year after the general election, Labour was averaging 24 per cent in the polls, down 10 percentage points from 34 per cent 12 months earlier.
This was the first time a party had experienced a double-digit fall in support during its initial year in office since John Major’s Conservative government of the 1990s, according to Press Association analysis of historical data.
A drop in the polls for a governing party is typically accompanied by a rise in support for the main opposition in parliament.
But the period from July 2024 to July 2025 saw something different and new in UK politics: a simultaneous and large fall in support for both the government and the opposition, with the Conservatives slipping from an average of 25 per cent in the aftermath of the 2024 election to 18 per cent a year later.
While Labour and the Tories both slid in the polls, smaller parties rose.
Reform first drew level with Labour in February 2025 and polled ahead on a few occasions, but Nigel Farage’s party had not yet established a consistent lead over either Labour or the Conservatives.
It was only in early May 2025, around the time of the local elections, that Reform pulled in front of both parties, where it has remained ever since.
The Liberal Democrats also edged up during this period, from 12 per cent to 14 per cent, while the Greens increased from six per cent to nine per cent.
The second year of Sir Keir Starmer’s government saw Labour’s average poll ratings fall further, dipping as low as 17 per cent in spring 2026, before stabilising in recent weeks around 20 per cent.
Reform enjoyed a jump in support, peaking around 32 per cent in September 2025, followed by a dip towards the end of the year and a further drop in mid-2026, with the party currently averaging around 25 per cent.
Poll ratings for the other parties have also stabilised in recent months.
The Conservatives are averaging 20 per cent or just below – often level-pegging with Labour – while the Lib Dems are around 12 per cent.
The other notable development in the polls during the second year of the Labour Government is the spike in support for the Greens in the aftermath of the election in September 2025 of Zack Polanski as party leader.
Support for the Greens climbed as high as 19 per cent in May 2026, but has since fallen back to average around 14 per cent.
As Labour enters its third year in government with a new leader at the helm, politicians of all parties will likely be watching for any sign of a “Burnham bounce” in the opinion polls – and, if the government’s fortunes do improve, how long the bounce might last.
Burnham will be sworn in as prime minister on Monday.
