A state Liberal Party is facing an apocalyptic election result, with a new leader struggling for traction against an ascendant Labor government and surging One Nation popularity.
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas and Liberal leader Ashton Hurn will face off in their first debate of the campaign on Friday, ahead of the election on March 21.
Mr Malinauskas and his Labor government are riding high in the polls, while the opposition leader is desperately trying to save the furniture.
A statewide Fox & Hedgehog poll, published on February 10, shows Labor holding a 61 per cent to 39 per cent lead over the Liberals in the two-party preferred stakes.
Liberal primary support was at 19 per cent, compared to One Nation’s 20 per cent and Labor’s 40 per cent.
If the results were repeated at the election, the Liberals would battle to retain three seats in the 47-seat lower house, with Ms Hurn struggling to hold her Barossa Valley electorate of Schubert.
Flinders University public policy associate lecturer Josh Sunman said three seats was a realistic number for the Liberals, which currently hold 13 seats.
“This is genuinely apocalyptic for the Liberal Party in South Australia,” he said.
“The government's got a pretty strong campaign going, they're sticking to their narrative of building SA, but the Liberals don't have a narrative, and that's what's really hurt them in the campaign.
“What kind of state would we be under Ashton Hurn? I don't think they've been able to articulate that.”
He said the result would not be the fault of Ms Hurn, who was given 103 days to rescue a party which has had three leaders in four years.
She will have the chance to push the opposition's agenda when debating Mr Malinauskas at The Advertiser's Future SA event on Friday
The Labor government has had all the running as it enters caretaker mode on Saturday.
In the past week, Mr Malinauskas has announced a $30 billion construction yard for AUKUS submarines, unveiled a “state of momentum” roadmap for economic opportunities, and announced the Australian MotoGP would move to SA from Victoria from 2027.
One Nation has named former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi to lead the party’s upper house ticket at the election and will field candidates in every lower house seat.
“But there is a whiff of the Xenophon about this,” Mr Sunman said, referring to Nick Xenophon’s SA-Best party, which fielded 36 lower house candidates in the 2018 state election, but failed to win a seat.
The best-case scenario for One Nation would be two to three lower house seats and maybe two seats in the upper house, Mr Sunman said.
The political academic believes a thumping Labor win may come with serious consequences.
“If you win something approaching 40 seats … you're going to kind of believe your own spin in some ways. I think there's certainly the risk of that over the next term,” Mr Sunman said.
A near-wipeout for the Liberals also raises questions on whether a handful of MPs could effectively hold the government to account.
