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Ben McKay

Kiwis set to decide closest NZ election in a generation

Chris Luxon was flanked by his wife Amanda and deputy Nicola Willis on the campaign trail. (Bianca De Marchi/AAP PHOTOS)

New Zealanders are set to conclude voting for their next government, in a race that has generated little enthusiasm and few are willing to call.

Polling shows an impasse between Chris Luxon's conservative coalition seeking a second term, and the Labour-led left.

A new centrist party, Opportunity, may play kingmaker and decide the result should it clear a five per cent threshold to elect MPs.

What is clear is a collapse of support for major parties, both of whom are led by men named Chris.

NZ Prime Minister Chris Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins
The pair also faced off in the 2023 election, won by Mr Luxon's National. (Ben McKay / Mark Coote/AAP PHOTOS)

Mr Luxon, the former Air New Zealand chief executive and National party leader, has struggled to win over Kiwis since winning office in 2023, facing two leadership challenges in recent months.

The alternative for prime minister, Labour leader Chris Hipkins, was prime minister for nine months in 2023 following Jacinda Ardern's resignation.

Neither have excited the electorate, leading to a record combined vote for minor parties, according to recent polls.

Graphic of the polling average before the NZ election on November 7
The contest is too close to call as New Zealanders wind up voting. (Joanna Kordina/AAP PHOTOS)

The Greens, the libertarian ACT party and Opportunity, a new teal force, are on track to record their best ever result.

Opportunity, led by millennial consultant Qiulae Wong, may even decide the entire election, given it is the only party unaligned in a larger bloc, and may play the role of kingmaker if it holds the balance of power.

The election also turns on strategic voting, whereby voters are asked to vote for different parties in their electorate than their nationwide party vote.

Should enough voters on either side of politics vote in that manner, it could produce an "overhang" and send more MPs to Wellington from their coalition than they might otherwise receive.

The rise of strategic voting has been a hallmark of the 2026 New Zealand election campaign. (Lillian Scott/AAP VIDEO)

The phenomenon could also see National lose a string of senior figures including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Defence Minister Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee, even if it is returned to office.

Results will become clear after 7pm on Saturday, when polling places shut nationwide.

More than 1.6 million Kiwis had already voted in the election before Friday, with that number again expected to turnout on November 7.

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