Publican Andrew Lethlean never imagined he'd be spending a mid-week morning in a park beside a politician, campaigning for votes.
As a small business owner, public office was never part of his plan.
But living in Bendigo East, the electorate held for the past 27 years by former Labor premier Jacinta Allan, the aspiring Nationals MP is confident he can fix the issues facing Victoria's regions.
Residents are frustrated with the cost of living, deteriorating roads and rising state debt, Mr Lethlean tells AAP.
"I was never a political person. I was quite well balanced," he says.
"The last few years, my kids are older and I'm realising how tough it's going to be for them to get ahead, to get into their first home.
"I know how difficult it's become for businesses."
Liberal Michael John spent four terms representing Bendigo East between 1985 and 1999 but the electorate has otherwise been a decades-long Labor stronghold.
It neighbours Bendigo West, held by retiring Labor MP Maree Edwards and won by her party in all but one election since 1985.
It also takes in the towns of Castlemaine, Maldon and Harcourt.
Labor is also under threat in Ripon, held by Martha Haylett since 2022, although the seat has historically been held by the Liberal Party.
All three seats are expected to fall from Labor's grip at the November 28 state election.
"Over the past 12 years that Labor's been in, the regional and the rural areas have been left behind and people are sick of it," Mr Lethlean says.
"We're going to make sure people realise I'm certainly putting a strong voice forward to make sure Bendigo and our region gets its fair share and is listened to."
The Nationals are confident they can take the seat, which One Nation candidate and cattle farmer Cheryl Hawken is also eyeing.
Her party's primary vote across Victoria sits at 22 per cent, according to a RedBridge/Accent Research poll for The Australian Financial Review published on Wednesday.
Despite early warnings of a surge in One Nation support across regional areas, the Nationals are “well positioned" to defend most of their territory, former Labor strategist turned Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras tells AAP.
"Labor does look like it's going to lose seats held for over 20 years in regional Victoria," he says.
"The coalition will do better in holding parts of regional Victoria against One Nation than we anticipated early this year."
While the Nationals will be worried about the rumblings of a potential orange wave, their position heading into the election remains strong.
"One Nation's polling the low 20s now; I anticipate the Nationals to defend most of their political real estate," Mr Samaras says.
Pauline Hanson's outfit is targeting the key seat of Morwell, currently held by the Nationals, as it seeks to make gains in the volatile electorate.
Mr Samaras says the seat is likely to fall to the minor party.
"One Nation is well placed to win that seat," he says.
"The seat has a history of a political volatility. It has, over the last 20 years, had a Labor MP, Nationals MP and independent.
"It is part of a state that has experienced an extreme level of economic volatility and people's living standards have considerably declined over the last 20 years.
"So, it's absolutely right for One Nation."
Victorians will be able to begin deciding the state's future when early voting opens on Wednesday.
Nationals leader Danny O'Brien isn't taking any seat for granted.
At the 2022 Victorian election, the party took three seats from independents and currently holds nine seats in the state’s lower house.
"We are fighting hard for every single vote," Mr O'Brien tells AAP.
"We are optimistic but we know we've got challenges everywhere."
He says every election is testing.
"Sometimes we have safe seats in the country but from the last 30 years, whether it's independents or now One Nation, we've always had to fight hard for our seats," he says.
"This one's no different."
About 12 per cent of the state's infrastructure spending is diverted to regional Victoria, even though it is home to 25 per cent of the population, according to Parliamentary Budget Office analysis.
For Mr O’Brien, the commitment is clear: to ensure the bush receives a share of funding and support that it deserves.
"People are warming to that message because they're sick of being ignored for so long," he says.
"Whether it's that lack of investment, the introduction of the emergency services tax, the appalling state of the roads in regional Victoria, all of those issues have led to anger and frustration against Labor.
"We've got to remind people Labor's been there for 21 of the last 25 years.
"The issues people are angry about are the fault of Labor and it's only a Nationals and Liberals government that can turn that around."
The controversial emergency services tax has amplified that angst.
The impost, which replaces Victoria's cheaper fire services levy, is designed to raise additional revenue for the State Emergency Service, triple zero and the State Control Centre.
It has triggered a major backlash within regional Victoria and among volunteer firefighters, with thousands taking to state parliament in protest.
"When I've been door knocking and holding listening posts in my own electorate over the last couple of weeks, people are frustrated and there is actually a level of despair," Mr O'Brien says.
"People are begging us to win."
