NZ Labour wrong on migration claim

The New Zealand Labour Party made the claim in a Facebook post on March 18.

"Under the Luxon [sic], NZ recorded the highest annual number of New Zealanders leaving the country ON RECORD," the post reads.

"A staggering vote of no confidence in his leadership."

In another post, the party claimed the National Party had presided over "THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF KIWIS LEAVING ON RECORD".

While a large number of New Zealand citizens have left the country since the National-led coalition came to power in November 2023, it hasn't been record-breaking.

The latest Stats NZ figures show that the number of New Zealand citizens leaving the country reached a recent peak of 67,812 in the year to April 2024.

That was the highest figure in more than a decade, but lower than the number of departures recorded for the 12-month periods ending between August and December 2008, at the tail end of the GFC.

Departures during that period peaked at 68,766 in the year to November 2008.

The record high, however, was recorded in the year to February 2012, when 72,401 New Zealanders left the country.

This occurred during a second post-GFC surge in departures between September 2011 and March 2013, when numbers remained consistently higher than the most recent peak.

When asked for evidence to support their claim, a spokesperson for the Labour Party directed AAP FactCheck to Stats NZ figures that measured all migrant departures, including non-citizens.

These figures showed the total number of migrants leaving reached 121,174 in the year to May 2025, the highest number of departures on record.

The closest peak was in the year ending February 2012, with 117,444 departures.

However, these figures are not limited to New Zealand citizens and include everyone who lived in New Zealand for 12 of the 16 months prior to departure, regardless of citizenship or visa status.

Paul Spoonley, an expert in migration at Massey University, told AAP FactCheck it was inaccurate to classify all residents of the country as "New Zealanders", a term that normally referred to New Zealand citizens.

He said the latest Stats NZ figures were the best source, but noted that the figures for the most recent months were estimates and subject to change.

Migration figures are calculated using the 12/16-month rule, in which a resident is classified as having left the country if they spend 12 of the last 16 months overseas.

This prevents tourists and other short-term travellers from being captured in the data.

However, as explained on the Stats NZ website, this means it takes 17 months for the figures to be finalised.

Before then, each person's travel intentions are estimated using a machine-learning model that predicts whether a traveller is likely to return based on a set of characteristics.

These estimates can be revised significantly.

Professor Spoonley noted that when figures for the year to May 2024 were first released, Stats NZ estimated a record 85,576 New Zealanders left the country. This was subsequently revised down to 67,771 as actual figures became available.

In fact, all of Stats NZ’s migration releases between December 2023 and October 2024 initially estimated that a record number of New Zealanders had departed the country, but were later revised downwards.

This led to multiple media reports that a record number of New Zealanders had left the country during this period.

The country did, however, record the highest level of negative net migration of New Zealand citizens during the coalition's current term.

In the year to April 2024, there was a net loss of 45,910 citizens, compared to the previous record of 44,385 in the year to February 2012.

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