What was claimed
New Zealand has experienced sustained economic growth for three quarters.
Our verdict
False. The country has only recorded two consecutive quarters of economic growth.
AAP FACTCHECK - New Zealand's finance minister has claimed the country’s economy has experienced “sustained growth” for three quarters, but the data tells a different story.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis made the claim during an interview on the Newstalk ZB radio program on March 20, a day after gross domestic product (GDP) figures were released for the December 2025 quarter.
The figures showed economic growth was lower than forecast, prompting host Mike Hosking to ask the finance minister whether that meant she wasn't good at her job.
“Obviously, quarterly forecasts and GDP notoriously bump around a bit," Ms Willis responded (timestamp one minute 32 seconds).
"What we’ve always said is if we get the conditions right, we’ll get sustained growth.
"We have had sustained growth for three quarters.”
While the New Zealand economy grew by 0.9 per cent in the September 2025 quarter and by 0.2 per cent in the December 2025 quarter, according to official Stats NZ figures, it contracted by 0.9 per cent in the June 2025 quarter.
That means the country sustained only two consecutive quarters of growth at the time Ms Willis made the claim.
The economy also grew by 1.1 per cent in the March 2025 quarter, meaning it grew in three of the four quarters of 2025.
The growth in the March quarter came after three quarters of stalled or negative growth.
AAP FactCheck contacted Ms Willis' office to request evidence supporting her claim, but did not receive a response.
Economist Shamubeel Eaqub told AAP FactCheck Ms Willis was incorrect.
"There has not been three quarters of sustained growth," he said.
"There has been growth in three out of the last four quarters."
Mr Eaqub said the claim was also wrong when considering GDP per capita, a measure that accounts for the country’s population size in the same period.
Bob Buckle, an emeritus professor of economics at Victoria University of Wellington, also told AAP FactCheck there had not been three-quarters of continuous growth.
He said it was possible the minister was referring to the three-quarters to the end of March 2026. However, the March 2026 quarter had not yet concluded when Ms Willis made the claim.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's February 2026 monetary policy statement estimated the economy would grow by 1.1 per cent in the March 2026 quarter.
"If the minister was referring to the three quarters to the end of March 2026 (which has yet to conclude), the statement may be correct, though we won't know the official estimate for some time yet," Professor Buckle said.
"If the minister was referring to the three quarters to December 2025, it would not appear to be correct."
Prof Buckle said Ms Willis could also be referring to the total growth over the last three quarters of 2025, covering the nine-month period from June to December inclusive, which he calculated to be 0.2 per cent.
"But if so, growth wasn't 'sustained' in all three quarters," he said.
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