Once divided by factional warfare, the Victorian Liberals are gearing up to emerge united after 12 years in the political wilderness.
With battle lines drawn for November's state election, the reunified conservatives are poised to jump into the driver's seat under their first millennial leader, Jess Wilson.
But as history demonstrates, they can't afford to rest on their laurels.
The coalition was firmly ahead in polling in the months before the 2025 federal election, with then-leader Peter Dutton in the box seat to become prime minister.
But a disastrous campaign led to Labor's return with an even larger majority as Mr Dutton surrendered his own seat and his political career.
"The future is unwritten, there's still seven weeks to go and campaigns still matter," Redbridge pollster and former Liberal strategist Tony Barry tells AAP.
"Peter Dutton was the preferred prime minister and it looked like, on a sunny day, he might be able to form minority government.
"This campaign will matter."
The latest Resolve Political Monitor conducted in September and published by Nine newspapers suggests the outlook has barely changed.
Labor's primary vote was steady at 25 per cent, the Liberal-National coalition pushed up one point to 27 per cent and One Nation stood still at 23 per cent.
Former prime minister John Howard once dubbed Victoria the "Massachusetts of Australia" for its left-leaning tendencies.
But if an election were held on Saturday, Mr Barry says the Wilson-led opposition would be best positioned to form a minority government.
"If the coalition can get in the top two in a majority of seats, and I think there's a pretty good chance of doing that, they'll actually win pretty comfortably," he says.
"Jess Wilson is currently very well positioned to be the next premier.
"Since the change of Labor leadership, that has not converted into any measurable improvement in Labor's vote, and they're running out of time to improve their position.
"They've been in government for 12 years and they're asking for 16. That's a lot - regardless of voter perceptions around their performance, delivery and outcomes."
For more than a decade, the Victorian Liberals have been plagued by leadership turmoil and public disputes, cycling through multiple leaders.
Matthew Guy was dogged by the so-called lobster-with-a-mobster scandal in his first term as opposition leader.
Days out from the 2022 election, the state electoral commission referred an investigation into Mr Guy and his former chief of staff to the corruption watchdog following a donor scandal.
John Pesutto was picked to lead the Liberals after the coalition's second drubbing under Mr Guy.
But the Hawthorn MP was replaced in the top job two years later after losing a high-profile defamation trial to Moira Deeming, who was allowed to return to the Liberal fold after being exiled.
The first-term MP was disendorsed in July following her refusal to apologise to Mr Guy after she accused him of assault at a community event in May.
Police reviewed CCTV of the interaction and said no offence was detected.
The Liberals have since been singing from the same hymn sheet, following through on Ms Wilson's promise of a "new direction" after she ousted Brad Battin in November 2025 to become the state's first female Liberal leader.
"There was a lot of baggage that was being carried by the Liberal Party for one reason or another: internal issues, leadership issues," long-time Liberal campaigner and political consultant Ian Hanke says.
"Ever since Jess has come to the floor, those internal issues have sort of gone away.
"We don't have the internal friction any longer with Ms Deeming.
"Whatever you think about the rights and the wrongs, that's all over and dusted with now.
"Those issues are behind us, and Jess has proved herself to be a very competent leader able to prosecute a case free of distraction and the baggage of the past."
The coalition's 2010 victory under Ted Baillieu was the Liberal Party’s last successful Victorian election campaign, ending Labor's then 11-year run in government.
It was short-lived, with Labor leader Daniel Andrews reclaiming office in 2014 and beginning another three-term run in power.
Mr Hanke says the current political environment looks markedly different from previous years.
"Debt and deficit have now come home to roost for the government," he says.
With One Nation's rise, questions are being raised about whether the coalition will be forced to strike a deal with the populist right-wing party.
Labor voices suggest that could be the case.
"This election, only Labor can stop the risk of a Liberal-One Nation government," Premier Ben Carroll said in July, hours after succeeding Jacinta Allan.
Ms Wilson continues to shut down any potential alliance with One Nation, declaring she is running to form a majority government.
"We are not dealing with these hypotheticals," she told reporters on Wednesday.
Labor has taken a more hardline stance, with Mr Carroll insisting he would rather "throw the keys back" than strike a deal with the Greens to form government.
In the event of a hung parliament, voters could be forced back to the polls if neither the coalition nor Labor reach an agreement with One Nation or the Greens to provide confidence and supply.
"They will be dependent on the cross bench if they don't win majority," Monash University politics expert Zareh Ghazarian says.
"If (both parties) refuse to work with the cross bench, then they're potentially giving their opponents the advantage of having that close working relationship."
The rise of One Nation has created a particular headache for the coalition, with Ms Wilson keen to keep her distance without publicly attacking the party.
"They are seeking to not muddy the waters by talking about potential work or collaboration with One Nation in the future," Dr Ghazarian says.
"One Nation does have strong pockets of support, but also has many people who don't want to vote for the party.
"The Liberal Party is trying to walk both sides here."
