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Poppy Johnston

Strong jobs market keeps pressure on interest rates

The Australian jobless rate in June remained level over the month at 3.5 per cent. (Dave Hunt/AAP PHOTOS)

The Australian labour market has shaken off a series of interest rate hikes and a slowing economy for another month. 

The official labour force data showed the unemployment rate hanging on at 3.5 per cent in June, after the May result was revised down.

Economists expected another show of strength in the jobs market but few predicted the unemployment rate sinking lower than the amended May result of 3.6 per cent.

About 32,600 people found work in June, which was also above economists' expectations, but down from the bumper 76,500 result in May.

The participation rate actually edged lower, to 66.8 per cent, but the 0.1 percentage point slip was down from the record high of the previous month.

Every state and territory except South Australia recorded a jobless rate below four per cent, with NSW notching an ultra-low 2.9 per cent unemployment rate for June.

AMP Australia economist Diana Mousina said unemployment was usually the last thing to turn before growth tapers off.

She said the persistent strength in the labour market was not surprising, and came in slightly below the RBA's expectations for a 3.6 per cent jobless rate by June.

Ms Mousina said the robust job report kept another 25 basis point hike in August "very much alive".

St George economist Jameson Coombs said the labour market was still readily soaking up the influx of workers coming in since borders reopened, with the working-age population surging 2.8 per cent in the past 12 months.

Mr Coombs said demand for workers was outrunning the massive surge in supply, which would make it difficult to return inflation to the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent target range.

"The result all but confirms that the labour market remains unquestionably strong," he said.

The economist said the data added weight to the argument for more tightening, although he noted monetary policy hits with a lag.  

The upcoming quarterly inflation report, due next week, will factor more prominently in the next cash rate decision.

The RBA board will be gunning for a substantial softening in the consumer price index to counter the robust jobs read.

The index rose seven per cent in the 12 months to March. 

Employment Minister Tony Burke said all job gains were a step in the right direction despite concerns the tight labour market was hindering the fight against inflation.

"As far as the Albanese Labor government is concerned, when somebody wants a job and gets a job, that is a success," he said on Thursday. 

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said there was a concerning trend beneath the strong labour force report.

"What we see in these numbers is Australians working more for less," he said.

Mr Taylor pointed to a substantial increase in hours worked in the past year at the same time as productivity growth had stalled and the economy was slowing.

The unemployment rate is broadly anticipated to drift up as higher interest rates dent demand and lessen the need for workers.

A range of leading indicators, such as job vacancies and hiring intentions, suggest the jobs market will soon start to loosen.

Flinders University economics academic Ilke Onur said job losses were coming, with cuts announced by Telstra, the banking sector and other industries.  

"With very low unemployment, below the natural rate of unemployment, in the face of rising interest rates and cost of living expenses, it is not surprising the banking industry and other corporations are downsizing," he said.

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