Parts of inland NSW and central Australia face a heightened bushfire risk over winter as warmer than average temperatures are forecast across the country.
The country is experiencing a return to normal after 12 months of persistent increased rainfall from La Nina and negative Indian Dipole events, the Australasian Fire Authorities Council said on Thursday.
Winter is expected to be warmer than usual, after southern and central Australia also experienced temperatures above average during autumn.
Climate models suggest El Nino conditions could develop in coming months.
AFAC bushfire specialist Simon Heemstra says the outlook paints a diverse range of bushfire risks across Australia over winter.
“Northern and central Australia are coming into the dry season with some areas having above normal fire potential, in contrast to cooler conditions in the southern parts of the country,” Dr Heemstra said.
But cool conditions can still create a bushfire risk, he said.
Much of the country will likely have below average rainfall over winter, with warmer than normal temperatures, combining to dry out root zone soils across the country by the end of winter.
Increased bushfire potential is forecast in the southern central parts of the Northern Territory and northern South Australia.
This is due to a combination of higher winter temperatures and increased fuel loads, including from the invasive buffel grass.
In NSW the bushfire risk will also increase over winter as winter frost “cures” large amounts of grass, which can provide fuel for fires.
There is a lower bushfire risk in the Great Dividing Range, because fuel loads remain reduced after the devastating 2019-2020 black summer bushfires.
Much of Australia will experience a “normal fire potential” over winter, but destructive and deadly fires can still take hold in these areas, and residents are urged to remain vigilant.
