Australia's migrant intake would be tied to the number of new homes built each year if the coalition wins government, under a plan to reduce pressure on the nation's housing sector and challenge Pauline Hanson's ascendant One Nation.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor will use his first budget reply speech to outline more details of his promised crackdown on migration, unveiling a dramatic cut to the number of foreigners allowed into the country and reheating parts of Peter Dutton's 2025 election platform.
"Australia should only bring in as many people as it can house," Mr Taylor will tell parliament on Thursday night.
"Under Labor, migration has run miles ahead of housing and that puts pressure on rents, house prices and on every young Australian trying to get ahead," he will say.
Under Mr Taylor's plan, a limit would be placed on net overseas migration, equivalent to the number of homes built in the previous year.
Net overseas migration is the difference between the number of people arriving in Australia and the number of departures, and also includes temporary migrants like foreign students.
Tuesday's budget forecasts the figure at 295,000 for this financial year, dropping to 225,000 by 2027/28.
That's well below the post-pandemic high of more than 550,000, when a flood of migrants re-entered the country as borders reopened, but still higher than pre-COVID levels.
Last financial year, around 175,000 new homes were built. If Mr Taylor's policy were implemented, that would mean a cut to net migration of about 40 per cent for this financial year.
The opposition leader will also seek to challenge Pauline Hanson's One Nation on migration after its win over the Liberals in the Farrer by-election, leaning into populist right-wing rhetoric around "mass migration".
"This is about mass migration running ahead of the homes, roads, hospitals, schools and services Australia can provide," Mr Taylor will say.
His budget reply speech sets up a fight with Labor over housing policy, after the federal government revealed plans to scrap tax concessions for property investors in a bid to help more young people buy a home.
The coalition has promised to repeal the changes if it wins the next election.
Mr Taylor has also revived former opposition leader Peter Dutton's promise from the 2025 election campaign to create a $5 billion housing infrastructure fund, which would help provide water, sewage, utilities and access roads to new housing developments.
The change will unlock up to 400,000 new homes, he will say, while also promising to scrap Labor's flagship housing funds, including the Housing Australia Future Fund, the Help to Buy and Build to Rent schemes and the New Homes Bonus.
