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Poppy Johnston

Cooling inflation could keep interest rates on ice

Inflation has slowed but prices are still growing much faster than the Reserve Bank's targets. (Nikki Short/AAP PHOTOS)

Australia's inflation rate has sunk more than expected, boosting the chances of interest rates staying on hold.

Inflation moderated to six per cent in the June quarter from seven per cent growth through to March.

The official numbers came in below the 6.2 per cent annual growth pencilled in by economists.

On a quarterly basis, the Australian Bureau of Statistics' consumer price index lifted 0.8 per cent through to June, down from 1.4 per cent in the three months to March.

This was the lowest quarterly rise since September 2021.

"While prices continued to rise for most goods and services, there were some offsetting price falls this quarter including for domestic holiday travel and accommodation and automotive fuel,” ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquardt said.

Working in the other direction were rents, which grew 2.5 per cent - the fastest quarterly pace in decades. 

International holiday travel and accommodation jumped 6.2 per cent across the quarter, fuelled by higher demand as holiday-makers trekked to Europe for the summer peak.

The trimmed mean, which crops away large price changes at either end of the spectrum, also weakened to 5.9 per cent annually in the June quarter from 6.6 per cent in March.

The core inflation result was a touch lower than the expected six per cent annual growth.

The slowing pace of inflation will likely be welcomed by the Reserve Bank ahead of its cash rate meeting next week.

While inflation is still well above the RBA's two to three per cent target range, Oxford Economics Australia economist Sean Langcake said it was tracking below its own forecasts for the June quarter. 

"While there are still concerns around the labour cost outlook, we think these data will buy the RBA more time and allow them to keep rates on hold a little longer," he said.

Labour data released last week came in hotter than expected, with the unemployment rate holding firm at 3.5 per cent in June.

Along with the strong labour market, stubborn services inflation could complicate the pathway forward for interest rates. 

Services inflation recorded its largest annual rise since 2001, lifting to 6.3 per cent in the June quarter from 6.1 per cent in March.

Ms Marquardt said this highlighted a shift from 12 months ago when goods were the major inflation drivers.

"Price increases for a range of services like rents, restaurant meals, child care and insurance are keeping inflation high,” she said.

EY economist Cherelle Murphy said the quarterly profile mattered more, with services inflation cooling gradually in the past three quarters. 

She said the data suggested the dozen rate hikes fired off since May last year were working as planned to bring down inflation. 

"But with inflation still far above the RBA's ... target band and some ongoing upside risks to wages and food prices, we are not out of the danger zone yet," she said. 

Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomed the decelerating inflation.

"We'd like to see it moderate faster but we are making welcome progress in this fight against inflation."

He said the government had a three-point plan to combat the challenge - banking its oversized budget surplus, providing targeted cost of living relief and addressing supply-side challenges.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said the government needed to treat fighting inflation as its "first, second and third priority".

"There are many levers at the government's disposal," he said.

"This is not a job to be left to the RBA."

The monthly inflation gauge, which was released at the same time, rose 5.4 per cent in the 12 months to June.

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