It's about to be revealed if Australia's biggest supermarket chain has maintained its lead over its major rival - and the extent to which its squishy Ooshie collectible campaign was a rip-roaring success.
Woolworths will announce its 2025/26 results for year to June 28 on Wednesday, a day after Coles disclosed its supermarket sales were up 3.7 per cent to $41.5 billion for the same period.
Coles' numbers were solid, market analysts said, but for one big negative.
While the food giant got off to a strong start in the new financial year, sales slumped during Woolworths' recent Ooshie promotion, a giveaway of rubber Disney, Marvel and Star Wars characters for customers who spend $30 or more at the till.
Coles' sales have picked up again since the Ooshie campaign ended, but they did not recover to the same level seen before the promotion.
"The collectibles campaign really came to an end 10 days ago," Coles boss Leah Weckert said on Tuesday in an earnings call.
"At this stage, it's probably a bit hard to say whether the full recovery has occurred in terms of it coming back up."
In the past, supermarket collectible campaigns, including Coles' own promotions involving Pokemon and Coles Little Shop collectibles, had lifted sales temporarily, Ms Weckert told reporters.
However, a survey conducted last week suggested the Ooshies offer had changed how a significant portion of shoppers, particularly parents and collectors, feel about the Woolworths brand and where they intend to shop next.
YouGov surveyed 1,102 Australian adults between August 17 and 19 for the poll, which found 39 per cent of adults and 64 per cent of parents with children under 18 reported they had changed their shopping habits as a direct result of the campaign.
Beyond more details on the Ooshie promotion, analysts and investors will be looking to see whether Woolworths' profit margin has recovered after it slipped in 2024/25 due to supply chain costs, wage increases and shifts towards own-brand products.
"Management quietly pulled back its earnings guidance in April, so investors will want to know more," eToro APAC market analyst Josh Gilbert said.
"The balance sheet is the other one to watch, with net debt expected to fall from around $16 billion to roughly $4 billion after asset sales."
That could mean shareholders were about to hear about buybacks or a special dividend, Mr Gilbert speculated.
Woolworths shares were changing hands about $38.60 on Tuesday, up 31.1 per cent since the start of 2026, against a broader Australian market gain of 4.9 per cent.
