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Paul Osborne

Weakness in economy continues as rate rises bite

New figures show weakness in the Australian economy is continuing for an extended period. (Dave Hunt/AAP PHOTOS)

The Australian economy continues to limp along despite a pause in rate rises and a strong labour market.

The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity, released on Wednesday, showed growth lifting slightly to -0.6 per cent in July from -0.67 per cent in June.

The 12th month of negative results in the index is the longest run in seven years.

"The economy continues to see an extended period of weakness," Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said.

"Despite a slight improvement in the July month, the Leading Index growth rate remains firmly in negative territory."

The bank expects GDP growth to slow to one per cent in 2023, lifting to 1.4 per cent in 2024 - most of that coming towards the end of the year.

"Such a period of weak output growth should assist inflation to fall further and to eventually return to be within the RBA’s target band."

Mr Hassan said he expected the Reserve Bank board to keep rates on hold at 4.1 per cent at its September meeting.

The Reserve Bank said in its latest board meeting minutes on Tuesday that while the official jobless rate remained around 3.5 per cent, there were some signs "the labour market was at a turning point".

The board noted a small rise in the underemployment rate, forecasting the unemployment rate to hit 4.5 per cent by late 2024.

More light will be shed on jobs when the latest official labour force figures are released on Thursday.

St George and Westpac economists expect the jobless figure to remain stable at 3.5 per cent.

However, ANZ expects the unemployment rate to tick up slightly to 3.6 per cent, with employment growth increasing by 5000 and the participation rate holding steady at 66.8 per cent.

"The leading labour indicators have deteriorated in recent months and we retain the view for the jobless rate to gradually move higher in the second half of 2023," ANZ economists said.

In a further sign of a weakening economy, Jobs and Skills Australia's internet vacancy index released on Wednesday showed job advertisements fell by 2.1 per cent in July.

Over the year, job ads decreased by 4.1 per cent.

Recruitment activity increased over the month across all major occupation groups, except managers and labourers.

The strongest increases were in community and personal service workers (up by 5.6 per cent) and technicians and trades workers (up by 4.6 per cent).

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