What was claimed
Budget figures show 1.765 million permanent migrants will arrive in Australia over the next three years.
Our verdict
False. The budget doesn't forecast permanent migration, and other migration forecasts feature much lower figures.
AAP FACTCHECK - Budget figures do not show 1.765 million permanent migrants will arrive in Australia over the next three years, despite claims circulating on social media.
Government migration estimates show far fewer permanent migrants will arrive during that period.
The false claims have spread across Facebook and X, gaining tens of thousands of views.
The claim appeared in a September 5 X post that urges people to remember the figure "at the ballot box".
"#BREAKING Australia is bracing for a major population surge, with Budget figures revealing nearly 1,765,000 permanent migrants will arrive over the next three years, despite repeated promises by Albanese to 'rein in the numbers'," the X post reads.
The same claim has been repeated on Facebook.
The budget does not forecast permanent migration.
Instead, it forecasts a measure called "net overseas migration" (NOM).
NOM is the difference between migrant arrivals and departures, including both permanent and temporary migrants and Australian citizens.
The 2026/27 budget forecasts a NOM figure of 765,000 for the three financial years between 2025/26 and 2027/28 (page 62).
The government also sets annual permanent migration “planning levels”, which specify the number of permanent visas the government plans to approve.
In May 2026, the government set the planning level for 2026/27 at 185,000 places, the same annual level as the previous two financial years.
If the figure remains unchanged for 2027/28 and 2028/29, it would mean 555,000 permanent migrant places would be allocated over the next three years.
However, most people offered permanent migrant places in Australia are already in the country, so they are not new arrivals.
The Department of Home Affairs says that 70 per cent of the permanent migrant places in 2026/27 will be allocated to people already living in Australia.
An earlier forecast published with the federal government's 2025 Population Statement in January 2026 predicted a net migration figure of 679,300 between 2026/27 and 2028/29, comprising 1.67 million arrivals and 987,600 departures.
Again, this 1.67 million arrivals estimate includes not only permanent migrants but also Australian citizens, temporary migrants and New Zealand citizens.
In 2024/25, only 15 per cent of migrant arrivals were permanent visa holders.
Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the government's immigration department, told AAP FactCheck the claim that 1.765 million permanent migrants would enter Australia in the next three years was “nonsense”.
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